Highlights:
Oct. 16 - With just 17 days remaining in the race to the White House, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry remain locked in a dead heat, according to the NEWSWEEK poll, taken after Wednesday's final debate in Arizona. In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, 48 percent of all voters say they would reelect Bush while 46 percent prefer Kerry.
Some great news:
Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give Bush the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent). This suggests that turnout will be critical in determining the outcome of the election: Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters. The number of voters who say they are still open to switching candidates is actually fairly small, but still large enough to determine the popular vote winner: One in ten (11 percent) registered voters are still uncommitted.
Again: Kerry is picking up nearly 60% of first-time voters. There probably are a record number of first-timers this year.
Now the weird stuff:
Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent. The Democrat also commands 50 percent of the youth vote (with Bush at 41 percent) and 54 percent of the senior vote (to Bush's 39 percent.) But Bush dominates the 30-49 set (56 percent to 39 percent). Voters aged 50 to 64 are split evenly, with 46 percent backing Bush and 48 percent Kerry.
KERRY leads MEN?!?!?!? BUSH leads WOMEN!?!?!?
World turn'd upside-down.
More strange shit:
Among the 64 percent of all registered voters who say they watched at least some of the latest debate, which focused largely on domestic issues, most (44 percent) declare Kerry the winner while 36 percent say Bush outperformed his challenger. Sixteen percent call it a draw (61 percent picked Kerry as the winner of the first debate). Kerry is viewed by debate-watchers as having a better command on the issues (49 to 43 percent), seeming more confident and self-assured (53 to 39 percent) and more likely to understand the concerns of "people like you" (49 to 43 percent). Still, Bush's demeanor on Wednesday led more people to see him as more personally likeable (48 to 43 percent).More than one third (35 percent) of those polled say the debates will have a moderate or high influence on who gets their vote. And based on what they have learned from all debates, a quarter (25 percent) of the country's voters say they have become more inclined to vote for Kerry, compared to 16 percent who say they have been swayed by Bush. But most (56 percent) say the debates have had no difference in choosing who gets their vote.
So, Bush lost all the debates, but gets a bounce in the polls, even though Kerry got almost all the benefit from debate exposure. WTF WTF WTF?
Whole article here:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/site/newsweek/