Kerry 44 Bush 42 Nader 2 Undecided 6
Bush w/leaners 46 Kerry w/leaners 46 Nader 2 Undecided 6
Why is the race in NJ so close?
(snip)
Nonetheless, "national security and the war on terror" outpaces every other issue as "most important" and on that issue Bush outpaces Kerry as the better candidate by 67%-26%. "It may be that voters' concerns with terrorism are causing them to cut the President some slack on other issues," added Larson
This is even in the case where:
(snip)
The President still has an uphill struggle in this Democratic-leaning state," said Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for PublicMind. "He has to struggle against a majority who think the country is on the wrong track, a majority who think the war in Iraq was a mistake, and a majority who give him low ratings for both the economy and foreign policy."A majority (54%) of New Jersey's likely voters continue to say the country "has gotten off on the wrong track" while only about a third (36%) say it's headed in the right direction. A majority (53%) rate the President's overall performance as President as "only fair" or "poor" against 44% who rate him as "good" or "excellent." Likewise, a majority (53%) rate his handling of foreign policy as only fair or poor while 44% say good or excellent. A similar majority (54%) say the military effort in Iraq is going "not too well" or "not well at all." And a majority (53%) continue to say that the U.S. action against Iraq was "a mistake."
So, again, we see that the "Scared Shitless" vote is large and real. Note that failure in Iraq isn't moving that many people towards Kerry. On the issue rated as most important, Bush has a SEVENTY percent approval. In a Democratic state that gave Gore victory with a 15 point margin.
Bush is making a campaign stop in Southern New Jersey this Tuesday. NJ has 15 electors, losing it would be a disaster in a close race (Michigan has 17 by comparison). It is likely Kerry will win in New Jersey, but there needs to be more effort.
Complete article here: